According to the most recent polls that have were conducted after the raid on Mar A Lago, the raid may have cost the Democrats their advantage in the upcoming US Senate midterm elections.
Democrats had been helped with a boost from the US Supreme Court's Dobbs decision which overturned Roe v. Wade and frightened a lot of people. But that boost has evaporated in the wake of credible accusations that the raid on Mar A Lago was politically motivated as an attempt to ban Trump and other Republicans from seeking and holding federal offices such as the presidency. There are no punishments provided for violating the Presidential Records Act but Trump may have violated other laws related to classified documents. But according to the US Constitution and the people who wrote it, Trump would still be qualified to run for president in 2024 and hold the office if he wins and that is even if he is convicted of violating classified documents laws. So the belief that the raid can get him banned from office is a bit unproven and conflicts with what the constitution says.
The US Supreme Court has ruled that only the Constitution can set qualifications for President and Congress. Even people found guilty of treason can still hold political office in the US but only if they are allowed to keep their US citizenship which can be hard to revoke for natural born citizens like Trump, even in cases of treason.
In Georgia, the polls have completely flipped on the Democrats with new polls showing the Republicans are ahead in both the gubernatorial and US Senate elections in that state. We do not have enough data to explain why Walker is suddenly ahead of Warnock by 5 points in several polls. Fivethirtyeight has Walker leading Warnock by 2 points. Our own sources in Georgia said they are hearing complaints that the Democrats have become too busy with trying to destroy Trump and destroy Republicans and have taken their eyes off the ball.
According to them, Trump may have actually helped is party by sacrificing himself to distract Democrat campaigns from being able to win the election.
And in the 2024 polls, remember that since Roe, BIden has been leading Trump. Starting a couple days ago, however, the gap between Trump and Biden has closed and Trump now leads in the polls by 5 percentage points. It is not clear, however, how much of that reversal is due to sympathy for Trump's Mar A Lago troubles and if it is, that may not translate into actual votes in 2024 which is still a little under a year and a half away.
The Democrats were actually doing much better in the polls when they focused exclusively on legislation and ignored everything happening with Trump and the January 6th riots but the minute they took their eye off the ball and decided to focus exclusively and narrow mindedly on Trump and Pro Trump Republicans is when all their legislative achievements in recent months became worthless trash in the minds of voters.
This brings to mind the adage that when you party is trying win control of a legislative body, beware of Trojan Horses from the opposing party. The Trojans are now within the gates. And the two parties are now neck and neck in the race for the US Senate.
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