If current California governor Gavin Newsom, he is likely to be replaced by radio show host Larry Elder who would be the first Black governor of California in history. For much of its existence, Blacks and Women, even during the 5 years of Mexican occupation in the 19th century, from ever being governor of California.
Elder is currently leading all recall polls of voters likely to vote on Recall Day. Another poll shows Newsom losing the recall fight while two others show it being a toss up. The issue that has hit the governor the most has been the insistence on his part and on the part of his strongest supporters that the US Constitution can be suspended or abolished in the name of combating COVID 19.
Recent issues hurting Newsom, besides his how his handling of COVID 19 violated major provisions of the US Constitution, but you can add to the list of items hurting him the manner in which the state is handling the drought. His administration has proposed banning showers and jailing people for washing their cars. Just last week the state announced it was banning most of the state's farms from using the state's water for agriculture. Newsome has also supported legislation that would strip away most local autonomy from the local community level.
While the state continues to struggle with increasing numbers of homeless, Newsom went on a trip to Central America and promised to kick Californians out of their homes in order to provide housing for Central Americans who entered the US illegally. That is another issue that is likely to hurt him as the Governor was sued by local Councilmember Jessica Martinez when he moved to shift money from medicare accounts used for elderly and disabled Californians and the state's unemployment program to give that money to people in the US illegally instead. Though no one at the time was aware that was where the disputed funds were being pulled from.
The poll by USA and The San Diego Tribune showed that 51% of California voters intended to vote in favor of recaling Newsome. A bare maximum of just 40% were opposed to removing Newsom.
To date all polls have shown that opponents of the recall election were likely to boycott the election by sitting it out, a move that will hurt only themselves. The same polls have consistently shown that White Republicans were the showing the strongest likelihood of voting in the recall which is interesting because it shows they intend to turn the reigns of the state's executive branch over to a Black man in a historic twist of fate. The irony being that while the Democrats are viewed as the party most open to Blacks and people of color, they have consistently refused to endorse anyone but wealthy White males for the governor's office. If this prediction holds, it will be the biggest irony in state history.
However, in another big irony the Republican Party has joined the Democratic Party in refusing to endorse a candidate in the recall election. So at this time, none of the recall candidates has been endorsed by any of the state's political parties and that is likely to cost them some prestige and power in the years to come as it will prove that you don't have to associate with a political party to win the governor's office. That could prove that in some cases candidates don't need political parties in order to win office.
The child of internal migrants from the US state of Georgia, Larry Elder is a talk radio host who was born and raised in Los Angeles and spent most of his life in Los Angeles. That would make him the first person from Southern California to hold the job of Governor since at least 50 years if not longer.
A potential 2024 Presidential candidate, Elder has listed 10 things he wants to do to save America in his book, THE TEN THINGS YOU CAN'T SAY IN AMERICA. Elder has in the past supported drug legalization and opposed gun control.
Elder had to sue the state after the Secretary of State refused to put his name on the ballot. In a recent ruling, the state's judiciary said that the income tax release requirement only applied to party primaries, not to recall elections. Though that interpretation is also likely to be challenged as it strips political parties of the right to choose their own nominees.
To date none of the recall candidates has more than 40% of the expected recall vote which means that who ever wins will likely win by a mere plurality.