Whittier 360 predicts six California propositions will pass, six will fail; two remain too close to call
ELECTION FORECAST
Whittier 360 News Network predicts that California voters will approve six statewide propositions and reject six others in the November 3 election. Two additional measures remain too close to call.
These predictions are part of an experimental forecasting approach that Whittier 360 is testing. After the election, we will compare our forecasts with certified results to assess their accuracy.
The predictions below are not endorsements or recommendations on how to vote. A forecast of passage does not indicate our support for a measure, and a forecast of defeat does not indicate our opposition.
Here are our predictions for all 14 statewide propositions, presented in numerical order, with explanations of what each would do if approved.
Proposition 1 — Housing affordability bonds
Whittier 360 prediction: PASS
Proposition 1 would authorize $11.25 billion in state general obligation bonds for affordable housing programs. Funding would support rental housing, veterans’ mortgages, supportive housing, preservation of existing affordable homes and down-payment assistance.
The state estimates repayment costs of approximately $500 million to $600 million annually for about 25 years.
Proposition 2 — State budget reserves
Whittier 360 prediction: PASS
Proposition 2 would change California’s rules for building its rainy day fund and making additional payments toward state debts. The changes would increase state budget reserves and continue extra debt payments for a longer period.
The reserve fund helps the state manage economic downturns and fluctuations in revenue.
Proposition 3 — Permanent extension of higher income taxes
Whittier 360 prediction: PASS
Proposition 3 would make permanent an existing income tax increase on high-income earners that otherwise expires in 2031. The official summary identifies an individual income threshold above $371,000, adjusted annually for inflation.
The measure would preserve an estimated $5 billion to $15 billion in annual state revenue by continuing those tax rates, with revenues allocated to public education.
Proposition 4 — Public financing of election campaigns
Whittier 360 prediction: FAIL
Proposition 4 would repeal the prohibition that prevents the state and most local governments from establishing publicly funded campaign programs.
It would allow qualifying programs rather than automatically provide public money to every candidate. Programs would face restrictions on eligible recipients and spending, and could not use money earmarked for education, transportation or public safety.
Proposition 5 — Changes to recall elections
Whittier 360 prediction: FAIL
Proposition 5 would change how vacancies are filled after successful recalls. Voters would no longer choose a replacement candidate on the same ballot used to decide whether to remove an official.
Instead, vacancies would generally be filled through a later special election or an appointment, depending on the office and timing. The measure would preserve the ability to recall officials while changing the replacement process.
Proposition 37 — Homebuying assistance
Whittier 360 prediction: PASS
Proposition 37 would create a homebuying assistance program financed through up to $25 billion in revenue bonds. Eligible buyers could obtain fixed-rate loans covering up to 17% of the purchase price of qualifying newly constructed homes priced below approximately $1.5 million.
Buyers would have to meet income and residency requirements, occupy the home and contribute at least a 3% down payment. Homeowners’ loan payments would repay the bonds.
Proposition 38 — Medical research bonds
Whittier 360 prediction: PASS
Proposition 38 would authorize $8.4 billion in state general obligation bonds for immunology and immunotherapy research. Half would go to a University of California-affiliated nonprofit medical research institute and half to research grants.
Estimated repayment costs are $500 million to $600 million annually for about 20 years. Revenue generated by the research could offset some or all of those costs, but that outcome is not guaranteed.
Proposition 39 — Additional voter identification requirements
Whittier 360 prediction: FAIL
Proposition 39 would require government-issued identification for in-person voting. Mail voters would have to place the last four digits of their designated government-issued identification number on their ballot envelope, matching their registration information.
The measure also would require citizenship-verification efforts, annual reporting and free state-issued voter identification cards upon request. Estimated implementation costs range from tens of millions to the low hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
Proposition 40 — One-time billionaire wealth tax
Whittier 360 prediction: FAIL
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time tax equal to 5% of the wealth of covered taxpayers with assets exceeding $1 billion. Revenue would primarily support health care.
The state estimates a temporary revenue increase totaling tens of billions of dollars over several years, alongside a possible ongoing reduction in income tax revenue from billionaires.
Proposition 41 — Tax audits and state spending limits
Whittier 360 forecast: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Proposition 41 would prohibit new state taxes that exclude their revenues from California’s constitutional spending limit. It also would require pre-election reviews of programs slated to receive funding from voter-proposed special taxes and recurring audits of programs supported by new special taxes.
The proposal could affect other tax measures on the same ballot through provisions addressing conflicting measures. Whittier 360 is withholding a pass-or-fail prediction.
Proposition 42 — Restrictions on new property and retroactive taxes
Whittier 360 prediction: PASS
Proposition 42 would prohibit new state taxes on ownership of personal property, including financial assets and business interests. Personal property in this context means property other than real estate.
It also would restrict certain retroactive taxes and apply to new taxes enacted or taking effect on or after January 1, 2026. The measure contains provisions addressing conflicts with other propositions approved on the same ballot.
Proposition 43 — Higher approval threshold for local special taxes
Whittier 360 prediction: FAIL
Proposition 43 would require two-thirds voter approval for voter-proposed local special taxes, replacing the current simple-majority threshold for those measures beginning January 1, 2027.
Special taxes raise money for specified purposes. The change could make it harder to approve certain local funding proposals and could reduce future growth in local tax revenue.
Proposition 44 — Community health clinic spending requirements
Whittier 360 prediction: FAIL
Proposition 44 would require certain nonprofit community health clinics to spend at least 90% of their revenue on qualifying program services advancing their charitable purpose.
Covered clinics failing to meet the requirement could face penalties. The proposal would create new state oversight responsibilities, with administrative costs funded through fees.
Proposition 45 — Environmental review changes
Whittier 360 forecast: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Proposition 45 would change California Environmental Quality Act procedures for qualifying projects, including many housing, transportation, water and health projects.
It would tighten deadlines for environmental review and court challenges and limit the scope of certain judicial reviews. Whittier 360 is withholding a pass-or-fail prediction because we consider the outcome too uncertain to call.
How the forecast will be evaluated
Our forecast contains six predictions of passage, six predictions of defeat and two uncalled contests. “Too close to call” means we are not predicting a winner; it does not mean we expect an exact tie.
We will assess the 12 pass-or-fail predictions against certified election results and report how many proved correct. The two uncalled measures will be identified separately rather than counted as successful predictions.
Voters will determine the outcomes. These forecasts represent Whittier 360’s assessment before the results are known.
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