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Analysis: Historic Split Executive Branch Likely As Polling Reveals Unprecedented Political Climate

July 15, 2023 – In a dramatic twist unprecedented in modern politics, the United States may be heading towards a split executive branch for the first time in over two centuries. Current data indicates a potential divide between the two major political parties in the upcoming presidential election, with the possibility of neither securing the necessary majority of electoral votes.

With most polls indicating a lead for former President Donald Trump in key states like Arizona and Georgia – which narrowly went to President Joe Biden in 2020 – Trump seems set to recapture the presidency. However, President Biden maintains a lead in Nevada and Wisconsin, contributing to an electoral scenario that defies easy predictions.

Adding further to the complexities, new data highlights growing dissatisfaction in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Many respondents expressed discontent with both the current president and his predecessor, with a sizable portion considering candidates from the No Labels movement. This shake-up could throw the electoral votes from these states up in the air, denying either of the major candidates an outright victory.

The electoral system of the United States dictates that in the event of no candidate receiving a majority of electoral votes, the decision of the presidency would be passed to the House of Representatives, while the Senate would select the Vice President. This situation presents a possibility of a split executive branch, given the House's current Republican leanings, contrasted with a Democrat-favored Senate.

This potential outcome – a President from one party and a Vice President from the other – would be the first such occurrence since 1796 when then Federalist President John Adams was elected alongside Democratic-Republican Vice President Thomas Jefferson. This would represent an unprecedented scenario in the modern era of American politics, harkening back to the earliest days of the republic.

Present projections indicate Biden receiving 242 electoral votes, Trump obtaining 262, and the No Labels candidate capturing the remaining 34 votes. This would prevent either the Democrats or the Republicans from achieving an outright majority of 270 electoral votes.

However, it's essential to remember that these projections represent a snapshot of a specific moment in the election cycle. Future polling and emerging data could substantially shift these numbers, possibly averting this historic and potentially tumultuous political occurrence.

In such an unprecedented scenario, the nation would have to grapple with a split executive branch and the challenges that may arise from differing political ideologies in the highest offices. It would undeniably mark a significant historical moment for the United States, with potential ramifications including legislative stalemates and policy disputes that could affect the nation for years to come. And it will force the extremists of both parties to say a word that has long been anathema to both groups: compromise.



Poll based map based on 2024 polls. States no colored in have not had polls yet. Yellow indicates state likely to support No Labels.

Map is based on up to date 2023 polls for July 2023 combined with historic trends in states with no 2024 polls released yet. This data indicates the US is heading for a moment we have not seen since 1796. Political extremists could be forced to learn about the word "compromise".

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