Data being reported by ABC News, The New York Times, and 270toWin show that President Donald Trump has caught up to and is currently tied with Democratic nominee Joseph Biden in the states of Nevada.
ABC is reporting that Trump and Biden are tied 49% to 49% in Nevada. A check on the sites of the New York Times and 270toWin which show more precise numbers indicate Trump has 48.7% of the vote while Biden's has dropped to 49.3.%
The site 270toWin is using the same numbers as the New York Times which when you round them to whole numbers means that Trump and Biden are officially tied at this time in Nevada.
The change in status in Arizona opens a path that could lead to Pennsylvania being a tie breaker.
If Trump does manage to flip Nevada, and goes on to keep Georgia and North Carolina then he would have 254 electoral votes to Biden's 253 electoral votes. That in turn means they both will need Pennsylvania to win because that is the only state with enough votes to put them over the 270 finish line. A win in Nevada could actually make Arizona irrelevant.
We found a similar scenario where Trump flips Nevada and Arizona but keeps North Carolina while losing Georgia to Biden. In that scenario Trump comes up with a smaller 249 electoral votes to Biden's 269. In that event, if Biden wins Pennsylvania he will win the election but if Trump wins Pennsylvania, it will be a literal tie in the electoral college that the US Congress will have to settle with members of the House and Senate each getting one vote per state. There are currently 27 states that have voted for Trump versus 22 who voted for Biden which makes it most likely Trump will win a Congressional vote to break a tie in the electoral college. So a national tie actually means Trump remains president of the United States, if, and it is an important if, he can succeed in flipping Nevada which it looks like he is getting ready to do.
Trump Path 1:
Trump Path 2:
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