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Early Voting Trends Show Mixed Momentum, With Harris Gaining in Key Midwestern States

Rebecca Canales


By Rebecca Canales, Founder and CEO of Whittier 360 News Network

As the 2024 presidential election nears its final stretch, early voting statistics are offering intriguing insights into the state of the race. While Republicans continue to show strong early voting turnout in several swing states, a shift in the Midwest has put Kamala Harris ahead in states that are pivotal for an electoral victory. Early voting returns now indicate Harris may be gaining an edge in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—three states that could decisively shape the outcome.

These developments provide an interesting snapshot, but it’s essential to interpret early voting data with caution. While these numbers suggest enthusiasm among Harris’s supporters in the Midwest, the dynamics could still change dramatically as Election Day turnout unfolds.


A Democratic Advantage Emerging in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

Recent early voting reports suggest that Harris is outperforming Trump in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. These states, which were key to Trump’s success in 2016, now appear to be leaning toward the Democratic camp, at least based on early ballots returned. Democratic turnout is also strong in Pennsylvania, where Harris has maintained a steady lead in early returns.

If this trend holds through Election Day, Harris’s support in these Midwestern battlegrounds could push her past the 270-electoral vote threshold. However, it’s important to remember that early voting numbers only offer a partial view. Factors like same-day voter turnout, absentee ballot counting, and potential swings in undecided voters could still influence the final outcome.


Interpreting Party Affiliation Alone: A Limited Lens

While party affiliation offers a window into potential voter momentum, it doesn’t capture the full story. Voters are far from monolithic and often diverge in their decisions, even within party lines. Both Republicans and Democrats have diverse coalitions, with varying opinions and priorities that can affect their choices at the ballot box.

Moreover, some analysts have sought to understand early voting trends through demographics, analyzing gender, race, and age. However, demographic data can be equally misleading, as individuals within these groups often have complex and nuanced views. While early trends might suggest certain demographic leanings, the broader picture will only come into focus once all ballots are counted.


A Snapshot, Not a Forecast

As compelling as early voting data may be, it remains just one piece of the election puzzle. Relying too heavily on these trends can lead to misleading conclusions, especially in a highly polarized election where voter mobilization efforts on Election Day could dramatically change the landscape.

While Harris’s current edge in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin suggests she has a solid path to victory, Trump’s strong turnout in other swing states still signals significant support. The race remains highly competitive, and the outcome will likely depend on which campaign can sustain their momentum through Election Day. For example in 2020, Trump was actually trending ahead of Biden in early votes just 8 days before election day but he ultimately ended up losing the state on election night.






A Critical Election Year With High Stakes

The 2024 election is one of the most polarized in recent history, with both candidates adopting contrasting strategies. Trump’s campaign has largely focused on policy and addressing voters’ concerns directly, while responding to critiques from Harris in targeted ways. Harris, meanwhile, has centered her messaging around portraying Trump as a negative force, which may be energizing her base in regions like the Midwest and Pennsylvania, where Democrats are leading early voting.

As this election season unfolds, it’s important for all voters to recognize the significance of their individual votes. The path to 270 electoral votes remains highly competitive, and every vote matters in deciding the future direction of the United States.


Proceed With Caution: Early Voting Trends Are Just One Part of the Picture

As we track early voting, it’s essential to remember that these trends do not guarantee an election outcome. Maps and projections based on early vote statistics provide useful insights into current momentum but cannot predict the final results. Election Day turnout could shift the balance in either direction, reshaping the electoral map and determining the winner.


At Whittier 360 News Network, we’ll continue providing updates as more data emerges. Remember, the true outcome of this election won’t be known until all votes are counted on Election Night.




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