Campaign Finance Filings Reveal Early Strengths and Weaknesses Heading Into 2026

As Whittier approaches the opening of the 2026 municipal election cycle at the end of December, new campaign finance disclosures are beginning to provide a clearer picture of how each race is shaping up. While it is still early in the season, fundraising statements and Statement of Organization filings give voters their first substantive look at how prepared each candidate is — and how rooted their support is inside the city.

Whittier 360 has reviewed all public FPPC Form 410 filings, campaign treasurer information, and newly-listed committee addresses to determine who has established the strongest foundation going into the December–February sprint.

This report reflects where each race stands as of late November 2025, and includes updated probabilities for all candidates, based on the presence or absence of campaign infrastructure, fundraising origin, local support indicators, political positioning, and historical voter behavior.

Why Funding Origin Matters More Than Funding Amount in Whittier

In Whittier elections, candidates who raise large sums from outside the city have historically underperformed, even when they outraised their opponents.

Whittier voters tend to react negatively when:

• Most donations come from outside Whittier

• The treasurer, consultant, or fundraising network is not local

• Political direction appears to be driven by regional interests rather than Whittier issues

Candidates who rely on local small-dollar donations — even in modest amounts — usually perform better than those who have higher totals funded by organizations or donors far from Whittier.

As a result, Whittier 360 weighs local-sourced funding more heavily than raw totals.

MAYORAL RACE – UPDATED RANKINGS & PROBABILITIES

1. Joe Vinatieri – Incumbent Mayor (Front-Runner)

Probability of Winning: 70%

Campaign Structure:

• Filed a full Statement of Organization (“Joe Vinatieri for Mayor 2026”)

• Treasurer: Jeff Brauckmann – a highly effective and well-known Whittier-based treasurer

• Bank: First Pacific Bank, Whittier

• Local campaign address and locally rooted financial operation

Assessment:Vinatieri has the strongest organizational foundation and a long track record of winning citywide. His filings show he is already prepared for a full campaign run. He remains the most likely to win unless an unexpected shift occurs.

2. James Becerra – Challenger

Probability of Winning: 18%

Campaign Structure:

• Filed a full committee (“Becerra for Whittier Mayor 2026”)

• Treasurer and assistant treasurers come from Norwalk, not Whittier

• Campaign banking through California Bank & Trust in downtown Los Angeles

• Professional consultants appear involved

Assessment:Well-organized, but fundraising origins are mostly outside Whittier, which historically weakens campaigns in this city. Becerra has structure, but not local depth — yet.

3. Christopher Anaya – Challenger (Minimal Organization)

Probability of Winning: 12%

Campaign Structure:

• Only a Form 501 Candidate Intention Statement

• No committee, no treasurer, no disclosed fundraising

Assessment:Without a full campaign organization, his path remains limited. However, his grassroots style gives him a small but real lane if he becomes more active.

DISTRICT 2 – UPDATED RANKINGS & PROBABILITIES

District 2 is now emerging as the most competitive race of 2026.

1. Vicky Santana – Challenger (Front-Runner)

Probability of Winning: 58%

Campaign Structure:

• Filed a full committee (“Vicky Santana for Whittier City Council 2026”)

• Treasurer: Jeff Brauckmann, one of the strongest treasurers in Whittier elections

• Address and banking are local through First Pacific Bank

• Has already been active publicly on issues at council meetings

• Strong name recognition from previous campaigns

Funding Origin:

• Early indicators suggest a substantial portion of support comes from outside Whittier, consistent with her past campaigns

Assessment:Despite outside-money concerns, Santana currently has superior organization compared to the incumbent. Brauckmann’s involvement significantly boosts her competitive position. She holds the early lead but could be vulnerable later if local donors consolidate behind the incumbent.

2. Octavio Martinez – Incumbent

Probability of Winning: 42%

Campaign Structure:

• Filed a committee (“Octavio Cesar Martinez for Whittier City Council 2026”), but initially without banking information

• Amended filing in July 2025 finally added a bank and qualification date

• This delay is unusual for an incumbent

• Treasurer is located out of the region (Placerville), not Whittier

Funding Origin:

• No major fundraising reported yet

• Historically, late fundraising harmed incumbents (e.g., Jessica Martinez 2024)

Assessment:Martinez still has incumbency advantage, but his slow start and lack of local fundraising puts him behind Santana for now. The fundamentals show a possible repeat of the Jessica Martinez 2024 pattern unless he ramps up immediately.

DISTRICT 4 – UPDATED RANKINGS & PROBABILITIES

1. Fernando Dutra – Incumbent (Front-Runner)

Probability of Winning: 72%

Campaign Structure:

• Full committee filed early

• Treasurer: Jeff Brauckmann, giving Dutra one of the strongest campaign infrastructures in the city

• Longest-serving member on the council

Assessment:Dutra’s combination of incumbency, experience, professional organization, and broad political coalition makes him the clear favorite.

2. Felipe (Phil) Longoria – Challenger

Probability of Winning: 20%

Campaign Structure:

• Filed a Statement of Organization but has not raised any money yet

• Known locally through decades of community work

• Strong personal presence but no organized fundraising

Assessment:Longoria could rise sharply if he begins attracting local contributions. For now, lack of campaign infrastructure keeps him behind.

3. Aida Macedo – Challenger

Probability of Winning: 8%

Campaign Structure:

• Filed a full committee (“Aida Macedo for Whittier City Council 2026”)

• Treasurer and assistant treasurer appear to be relatives

• Consultants involved, but fundraising has not begun

• Public videos emphasize ICE as the core issue and frame her campaign as representing the Latino community specifically

Assessment:Her positioning may energize some voters but may alienate others in a district where broad-based appeal is essential. With no fundraising yet, she remains the least likely to win at this stage.

Although Aida Macedo has hired a well-known outside political consultancy—indicating she has the personal resources to self-fund—her campaign currently reports no outside contributions and no evidence of a local donor base. As of the most recent filings, she remains entirely self-funded with no Whittier-based fundraising activity.

This combination places her at the bottom of Whittier 360’s current power rankings. In Whittier elections, early fundraising from local residents is a strong predictor of voter reach, community support, and overall viability. Even candidates with significant personal finances tend to struggle if they cannot demonstrate neighborhood-level backing or donor engagement within the city.

Macedo’s professional campaign team gives her potential for rapid improvement, but until she develops measurable support from Whittier residents, she remains the lowest-ranked candidate in the 2026 municipal field.

Conclusion: The Two Variables to Watch

Whittier’s 2026 races are still in the foundation-building stage, but several trends are already clear:

1. Fundraising source matters more than amount

Candidates with local donors historically win. Candidates funded mostly from outside Whittier usually lose.

2. Structural readiness matters

Candidates with full committees, professional treasurers, and early organization start with a major advantage.

Whittier 360 will continue publishing updated power rankings each week based on new filings, contributions, and campaign activity.